bibdle/src/routes/global/+page.server.ts

import { db } from '$lib/server/db';
import { dailyCompletions, user } from '$lib/server/db/schema';
import { eq, gte, count, countDistinct, avg, asc, min } from 'drizzle-orm';
import type { PageServerLoad } from './$types';

function estDateStr(daysAgo = 0): string {
	const estNow = new Date(Date.now() - 5 * 60 * 60 * 1000); // UTC-5
	estNow.setUTCDate(estNow.getUTCDate() - daysAgo);
	return estNow.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
}

function prevDay(d: string): string {
	const dt = new Date(d + 'T00:00:00Z');
	dt.setUTCDate(dt.getUTCDate() - 1);
	return dt.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
}

function addDays(d: string, n: number): string {
	const dt = new Date(d + 'T00:00:00Z');
	dt.setUTCDate(dt.getUTCDate() + n);
	return dt.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
}

export const load: PageServerLoad = async () => {
	const todayEst = estDateStr(0);
	const yesterdayEst = estDateStr(1);
	const sevenDaysAgo = estDateStr(7);

	// Three weekly windows for first + second derivative calculations
	// Week A: last 7 days (indices 0–6)
	// Week B: 7–13 days ago (indices 7–13)
	// Week C: 14–20 days ago (indices 14–20)
	const weekAStart = estDateStr(6);
	const weekBEnd = estDateStr(7);
	const weekBStart = estDateStr(13);
	const weekCEnd = estDateStr(14);
	const weekCStart = estDateStr(20);

	// ── Scalar stats ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

	const [{ todayCount }] = await db
		.select({ todayCount: count() })
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, todayEst));

	const [{ totalCount }] = await db
		.select({ totalCount: count() })
		.from(dailyCompletions);

	const [{ uniquePlayers }] = await db
		.select({ uniquePlayers: countDistinct(dailyCompletions.anonymousId) })
		.from(dailyCompletions);

	const [{ weeklyPlayers }] = await db
		.select({ weeklyPlayers: countDistinct(dailyCompletions.anonymousId) })
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, sevenDaysAgo));

	const todayPlayers = await db
		.selectDistinct({ id: dailyCompletions.anonymousId })
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, todayEst));

	const yesterdayPlayers = await db
		.selectDistinct({ id: dailyCompletions.anonymousId })
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, yesterdayEst));

	const todaySet = new Set(todayPlayers.map((r) => r.id));
	const activeStreaks = yesterdayPlayers.filter((r) => todaySet.has(r.id)).length;

	const [{ avgGuessesRaw }] = await db
		.select({ avgGuessesRaw: avg(dailyCompletions.guessCount) })
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.where(eq(dailyCompletions.date, todayEst));

	const avgGuessesToday = avgGuessesRaw != null ? parseFloat(avgGuessesRaw) : null;

	const [{ registeredUsers }] = await db
		.select({ registeredUsers: count() })
		.from(user);

	const avgCompletionsPerPlayer =
		uniquePlayers > 0 ? Math.round((totalCount / uniquePlayers) * 100) / 100 : null;

	// ── 21-day completions per day (covers all three weekly windows) ──────────

	const rawPerDay21 = await db
		.select({ date: dailyCompletions.date, dayCount: count() })
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, weekCStart))
		.groupBy(dailyCompletions.date)
		.orderBy(asc(dailyCompletions.date));

	const counts21 = new Map(rawPerDay21.map((r) => [r.date, r.dayCount]));

	// Build indexed array: index 0 = today, index 20 = 20 days ago
	const completionsPerDay: number[] = [];
	for (let i = 0; i <= 20; i++) {
		completionsPerDay.push(counts21.get(estDateStr(i)) ?? 0);
	}

	// last14Days for the trend chart (most recent first)
	const last14Days: { date: string; count: number }[] = [];
	for (let i = 0; i <= 13; i++) {
		last14Days.push({ date: estDateStr(i), count: completionsPerDay[i] });
	}

	// Weekly totals from the indexed array
	const weekATotal = completionsPerDay.slice(0, 7).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
	const weekBTotal = completionsPerDay.slice(7, 14).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);
	const weekCTotal = completionsPerDay.slice(14, 21).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);

	// First derivative: avg daily completions change (week A vs week B)
	const completionsVelocity = Math.round(((weekATotal - weekBTotal) / 7) * 10) / 10;
	// Second derivative: is velocity itself increasing or decreasing?
	const completionsAcceleration =
		Math.round((((weekATotal - weekBTotal) - (weekBTotal - weekCTotal)) / 7) * 10) / 10;

	// ── 90-day per-user data (reused for streaks + weekly user sets) ──────────

	const ninetyDaysAgo = estDateStr(90);
	const recentCompletions = await db
		.select({ anonymousId: dailyCompletions.anonymousId, date: dailyCompletions.date })
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.where(gte(dailyCompletions.date, ninetyDaysAgo))
		.orderBy(asc(dailyCompletions.date));

	// Group dates by user (ascending) and users by date
	const userDatesMap = new Map<string, string[]>();
	const dateUsersMap = new Map<string, Set<string>>();
	for (const row of recentCompletions) {
		const arr = userDatesMap.get(row.anonymousId);
		if (arr) arr.push(row.date);
		else userDatesMap.set(row.anonymousId, [row.date]);

		let s = dateUsersMap.get(row.date);
		if (!s) { s = new Set(); dateUsersMap.set(row.date, s); }
		s.add(row.anonymousId);
	}

	// ── Streak distribution ───────────────────────────────────────────────────

	const streakDistribution = new Map<number, number>();
	for (const dates of userDatesMap.values()) {
		const desc = dates.slice().reverse();
		if (desc[0] !== todayEst && desc[0] !== yesterdayEst) continue;
		let streak = 1;
		let cur = desc[0];
		for (let i = 1; i < desc.length; i++) {
			if (desc[i] === prevDay(cur)) {
				streak++;
				cur = desc[i];
			} else {
				break;
			}
		}
		if (streak >= 2) {
			streakDistribution.set(streak, (streakDistribution.get(streak) ?? 0) + 1);
		}
	}

	const streakChart = Array.from(streakDistribution.entries())
		.sort((a, b) => a[0] - b[0])
		.map(([days, userCount]) => ({ days, count: userCount }));

	// ── Weekly user sets (for user-based velocity + churn) ───────────────────

	const weekAUsers = new Set<string>();
	const weekBUsers = new Set<string>();
	const weekCUsers = new Set<string>();

	for (const [userId, dates] of userDatesMap) {
		if (dates.some((d) => d >= weekAStart)) weekAUsers.add(userId);
		if (dates.some((d) => d >= weekBStart && d <= weekBEnd)) weekBUsers.add(userId);
		if (dates.some((d) => d >= weekCStart && d <= weekCEnd)) weekCUsers.add(userId);
	}

	// First derivative: weekly unique users change
	const userVelocity = weekAUsers.size - weekBUsers.size;
	// Second derivative: is user growth speeding up or slowing down?
	const userAcceleration =
		weekAUsers.size - weekBUsers.size - (weekBUsers.size - weekCUsers.size);

	// ── New players + churn ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
	// New players: anonymousIds whose first-ever completion falls in the last 7 days.
	// Checking against all-time data (not just the 90-day window) ensures accuracy.
	const firstDates = await db
		.select({
			anonymousId: dailyCompletions.anonymousId,
			firstDate: min(dailyCompletions.date),
			totalCompletions: count()
		})
		.from(dailyCompletions)
		.groupBy(dailyCompletions.anonymousId);

	const newUsers7d = firstDates.filter((r) => r.firstDate != null && r.firstDate >= weekAStart).length;

	// Churned: played in week B but not at all in week A
	const churned7d = [...weekBUsers].filter((id) => !weekAUsers.has(id)).length;

	// Net growth = truly new arrivals minus departures
	const netGrowth7d = newUsers7d - churned7d;

	// ── Return rate ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
	// "Return rate": % of all-time unique players who have ever played more than once.
	const playersWithReturn = firstDates.filter((r) => r.totalCompletions >= 2).length;
	const overallReturnRate =
		firstDates.length > 0
			? Math.round((playersWithReturn / firstDates.length) * 1000) / 10
			: null;

	// Daily new-player return rate: for each day D, what % of first-time players
	// on D ever came back (i.e. totalCompletions >= 2)?
	const dailyNewPlayerReturn = new Map<string, { cohort: number; returned: number }>();
	for (const r of firstDates) {
		if (!r.firstDate) continue;
		const existing = dailyNewPlayerReturn.get(r.firstDate) ?? { cohort: 0, returned: 0 };
		existing.cohort++;
		if (r.totalCompletions >= 2) existing.returned++;
		dailyNewPlayerReturn.set(r.firstDate, existing);
	}

	// Build chronological array of daily rates (oldest first, days 60→1 ago)
	// Days with fewer than 3 new players get rate=null to exclude from rolling avg
	const dailyReturnRates: { date: string; cohort: number; rate: number | null }[] = [];
	for (let i = 60; i >= 1; i--) {
		const dateD = estDateStr(i);
		const d = dailyNewPlayerReturn.get(dateD);
		dailyReturnRates.push({
			date: dateD,
			cohort: d?.cohort ?? 0,
			rate: d && d.cohort >= 3 ? Math.round((d.returned / d.cohort) * 1000) / 10 : null
		});
	}

	// 7-day trailing rolling average of the daily rates
	// Index 0 = 60 days ago, index 59 = yesterday
	const newPlayerReturnSeries = dailyReturnRates.map((r, idx) => {
		const window = dailyReturnRates
			.slice(Math.max(0, idx - 6), idx + 1)
			.filter((d) => d.rate !== null);
		const avg =
			window.length > 0
				? Math.round((window.reduce((sum, d) => sum + (d.rate ?? 0), 0) / window.length) * 10) /
					10
				: null;
		return { date: r.date, cohort: r.cohort, rate: r.rate, rollingAvg: avg };
	});

	// Velocity: avg of last 7 complete days (idx 53–59) vs prior 7 (idx 46–52)
	const recentWindow = newPlayerReturnSeries.slice(53).filter((d) => d.rate !== null);
	const priorWindow = newPlayerReturnSeries.slice(46, 53).filter((d) => d.rate !== null);
	const current7dReturnAvg =
		recentWindow.length > 0
			? Math.round(
					(recentWindow.reduce((a, d) => a + (d.rate ?? 0), 0) / recentWindow.length) * 10
				) / 10
			: null;
	const prior7dReturnAvg =
		priorWindow.length > 0
			? Math.round(
					(priorWindow.reduce((a, d) => a + (d.rate ?? 0), 0) / priorWindow.length) * 10
				) / 10
			: null;
	const returnRateChange =
		current7dReturnAvg !== null && prior7dReturnAvg !== null
			? Math.round((current7dReturnAvg - prior7dReturnAvg) * 10) / 10
			: null;

	// ── Retention over time ───────────────────────────────────────────────────
	// For each cohort day D, retention = % of that day's players who played
	// again within the next N days. Only compute for days where D+N is in the past.

	function retentionSeries(
		windowDays: number,
		seriesLength: number
	): { date: string; rate: number; cohortSize: number }[] {
		// Earliest computable cohort day: today - (windowDays + 1)
		// We use index windowDays+1 through windowDays+seriesLength
		const series: { date: string; rate: number; cohortSize: number }[] = [];
		for (let i = windowDays + 1; i <= windowDays + seriesLength; i++) {
			const dateD = estDateStr(i);
			const cohort = dateUsersMap.get(dateD);
			if (!cohort || cohort.size < 3) continue; // skip tiny cohorts
			let retained = 0;
			for (const userId of cohort) {
				for (let j = 1; j <= windowDays; j++) {
					if (dateUsersMap.get(addDays(dateD, j))?.has(userId)) {
						retained++;
						break;
					}
				}
			}
			series.push({
				date: dateD,
				rate: Math.round((retained / cohort.size) * 1000) / 10,
				cohortSize: cohort.size
			});
		}
		return series; // newest first (loop iterates i from smallest = most recent)
	}

	const retention7dSeries = retentionSeries(7, 30);
	const retention30dSeries = retentionSeries(30, 30);

	return {
		todayEst,
		stats: {
			todayCount,
			totalCount,
			uniquePlayers,
			weeklyPlayers,
			activeStreaks,
			avgGuessesToday,
			registeredUsers,
			avgCompletionsPerPlayer
		},
		growth: {
			completionsVelocity,
			completionsAcceleration,
			userVelocity,
			userAcceleration,
			newUsers7d,
			churned7d,
			netGrowth7d
		},
		last14Days,
		streakChart,
		retention7dSeries,
		retention30dSeries,
		overallReturnRate,
		newPlayerReturnSeries: newPlayerReturnSeries.slice(-30).reverse(),
		newPlayerReturnVelocity: {
			current7dAvg: current7dReturnAvg,
			prior7dAvg: prior7dReturnAvg,
			change: returnRateChange
		}
	};
};